With the 2026 election only months away, Joyce Bagala, the Mityana Woman MP, stands at a crossroads: should she remain ambiguous about her ties to Mathias Mpuuga or should she publicly embrace NUP to secure her political survival?
There is no doubt that Bagala’s journey into politics has in many ways been shaped and guided by Mpuuga, the Nyendo-Mukungwe MP.
When Bagala first expressed her ambition to stand in Mityana in 2016, Mpuuga was one of the key opposition figures she consulted.
She did not win then, but at that point, Mpuuga became one of her mentors.
Not only was Mpuuga a symbol of principled resistance against the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), but he was also one of the most articulate politicians.
It was Mpuuga, among others, who convinced Bagala to ditch the Democratic Party (DP) and join the National Unity Platform (NUP) as the 2021 elections neared.
When Bagala was finally elected to Parliament in 2021 on a NUP ticket, Mpuuga, who had been chosen as Leader of Opposition, appointed her shadow minister for Information.
In this role, Mpuuga groomed her and imparted some leadership skills to her because they worked closely.
That is why when Mpuuga fell out with NUP over the Shs 500 million service award saga last year, Bagala chose to stick with him. She even refused to append her signature to a petition calling for Mpuuga’s censure, leading to several attacks on her person by some NUP leaders and supporters.
In the end, Mpuuga charted his course by founding the Democratic Alliance (DA), a new political outfit that sought to carve out a distinct identity in Uganda’s crowded opposition space.
Yet Mpuuga’s departure to form the DA split loyalties and sowed seeds of mistrust between him and some people in NUP.
For Bagala, this rift placed her in an unenviable position: her mentor was now at odds with her party, and her closeness to him had begun to raise eyebrows among NUP’s rank and file.
Cautious distance
On the surface, Bagala has maintained a cautious distance from the DA. She has neither attended any of the group’s major public functions nor has she been seen at the organization’s offices in Rubaga.
Recently, when the group announced its country-wide coordinators, her name was conspicuously missing on the list. Some had expected her to be one of the group’s key mobilisers in Mityana.
What is her political calculation?
In Uganda’s fiercely competitive political system, securing a party nomination in some parts of the country is often the difference between victory and defeat.
NUP remains hugely popular in Mityana and many parts of Buganda, so Bagala knows that if she can secure the party ticket in 2026, her re-election to Parliament could be a formality.
Yet, her relationship with NUP’s leadership is strained given her close association with Mpuuga. Whispers from party insiders suggest that some senior figures view her with suspicion, questioning whether her loyalty lies with Mpuuga or the party.
Her refusal to publicly distance herself from her mentor has fueled these doubts, even as she avoids outright confrontation with NUP like her colleagues Abed Bwanika the MP for Kimanya and Michael Kakembo of Entebbe Municipality.
Despite these tensions, there is a pragmatic undercurrent to Bagala’s situation. Political analysts and local observers speculate that NUP might have little choice but to back her in 2026.
Bagala is a formidable figure in Mityana and some say she remains NUP’s best bet to defeat NRM’s Judith Nabakooba, who has deep pockets and is already mobilizing at the grassroots.
Some say replacing her with an untested candidate risks handing the seat to the NRM, a scenario NUP can ill afford as it seeks to consolidate its gains from 2021.
“Joyce is a political asset, whether the party likes it or not,” said a NUP MP who requested anonymity.
“They might grumble about her ties to Mpuuga, but they know she’s their best shot.”
As Bagala weighs her options, the question of how to handle her relationship with Mpuuga looms large.
By keeping her stance vague, she may be avoiding burning bridges with either side, preserving her flexibility as the political landscape evolves.
Risks
Yet, this approach also carries risks for the Mityana Woman MP. The longer Bagala stays silent, the more NUP supporters might interpret her ambiguity as opportunism.
“If Joyce keeps playing it safe, she might lose the trust of both NUP and Mpuuga’s camp,” said the MP.
There is also the danger that NUP’s leadership, frustrated by her lack of clarity, could opt for a more overtly loyal candidate, gambling on a fresh face to rally the base.
In a worst-case scenario, Bagala’s fence-sitting could leave her isolated, with neither NUP nor the DA fully embracing her.
The alternative—publicly embracing NUP—offers a clearer path, but it comes with its own set of challenges. It would lead to her inevitable fallout with Mpuuga.
In the end, Bagala knows that there is a fine line to walk as she prepares her 2026 re-election bid. The ball is firmly in her court.
