To use the tired cliché, “It is the D-Day” in Kawempe North today as voters head to the polls to elect a replacement for Muhammad Ssegirinya, who died in January.
The two main contenders are National Unity Platform’s Elias Nalukoola Luyimbazi, a seasoned city lawyer, and NRM’s Faridah Nambi, daughter of the party’s vice chairperson, Moses Kigongo.
If we are to go by sentiments and optics, Nalukoola is widely regarded as the frontrunner. While his campaign has run into hitches, he is buoyed by NUP’s historical dominance in the constituency and Ssegirinya’s enduring legacy.
Yet, beneath the surface, tensions are simmering, allegations of electoral malpractice are rife, and NRM’s quiet but calculated mobilization efforts hint at the possibility of an upset.
Could NUP’s confidence prove to be its Achilles’ heel?
Advantage Nalukoola
Nalukoola enters polling day with significant advantages. Kawempe North has long been an opposition bastion, and Ssegirinya’s landslide victory in the 2021 general election—securing 41,197 votes against the NRM candidate’s distant 6,946—underscores the constituency’s allegiance to NUP.
In the campaigns, Nalukoola has leaned heavily on this legacy, framing himself as the natural successor to Ssegirinya’s people-centric leadership. His campaign has been marked by bold promises: legislative expertise, community consultation, and a commitment to safeguarding the vote against rigging.
NUP’s mobilization has been visible and vocal. On many rallies, Nalukoola was joined by prominent figures like acting PFF president Erias Lukwago, Winnie Kizza, and Wasswa Birigwa, as a show of opposition unity.
Despite early campaign disruptions, including Nalukoola’s brief arrest post-nomination and clashes with security forces, NUP has maintained a high-energy presence, banking on its popularity among Kawempe’s youth and working class.
Rising Tensions
However, the road to polling day has been far from smooth. Tensions have escalated in recent days, with NUP accusing security forces of targeting its supporters. On March 3, police, the Joint Anti-Terrorism Taskforce (JATT), and Special Forces Command (SFC) clashed with NUP campaigners, deploying teargas and live rounds to disperse crowds.
NUP secretary-general David Lewis Rubongoya decried the violence, alleging a double standard: while NRM’s Faridah Nambi campaigned unimpeded, NUP faced relentless harassment. This pattern echoes past incidents, such as the 2021 general election, where opposition candidates reported similar intimidation tactics.
The most explosive development came yesterday, when NUP leaders, including Leader of Opposition Joel Ssenyonyi and Nalukoola, stormed a residence in Nammere, Kawempe North, following tips of ballot pre-ticking.
The raid turned violent—vehicles were damaged, journalists assaulted, and Spark TV’s Steven Kibwiika hospitalized—yet yielded no conclusive evidence.
NUP claims the operation uncovered NRM-orchestrated rigging, while skeptics on X suggest NUP may have staged the incident to discredit the process. Regardless, the episode has fueled distrust, with Ssenyonyi questioning the Electoral Commission’s oversight.
Historical precedents, like the contentious Kayunga LC V by-election in 2021, where NRM’s Andrew Muwonge won amid rigging allegations, lend credence to fears of electoral manipulation.
NRM’s strength
While NUP’s campaign has been loud and public, NRM has adopted a subtler, more organized approach. Nambi, backed by the ruling party’s formidable machinery, has leaned on high-profile endorsements and targeted outreach.
On Tuesday, President Museveni, NRM’s national chairman, joined Nambi at Kawempe Mbogo Playground for a final rally, signaling the party’s intent to reclaim the seat.
Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja, a Kawempe native, has been a constant presence, touting Nambi as a conduit for development.
NRM’s underground efforts have been equally critical. Reports suggest the party has deployed teams to engage voters door-to-door, a strategy that proved effective in past by-elections.
In Kayunga, NRM concentrated resources to secure a win, despite opposition protests. In Kawempe, the defection of Ssegirinya’s widow Mariam Nakabuye to Nambi’s camp—citing NUP’s alleged betrayal of her husband’s wishes—has given NRM a symbolic boost.
Nakabuye’s claim that Nambi’s ties to Museveni will bring resources to the constituency resonates with voters frustrated by perennial issues like unemployment and infrastructure decay.
No room for complacency
NUP’s dominance in Kawempe North is undeniable, but there are signs it may be taking its support for granted. The party’s focus on large rallies and confrontational rhetoric—while energizing its base—may have overshadowed grassroots consolidation.
Rubongoya’s assertion that “voting alone is not enough” and Nalukoola’s call for supporters to “defend the vote” reflects a defensive posture, perhaps underestimating NRM’s quieter mobilization. The internal rift over candidate selection, with Ssegirinya’s former aide Alex Luwemba running as an independent after losing the NUP ticket, could split the opposition vote.
Moreover, NUP’s reliance on Ssegirinya’s legacy may not fully translate to Nalukoola. While Ssegirinya’s charisma and relatability endeared him to voters, Nalukoola’s legal background and polished demeanor might not resonate as strongly with Kawempe’s ghetto youth.
If turnout falters—particularly if security intimidation keeps voters away—NUP’s projected landslide could shrink, opening the door for NRM.
The X-factor
Kawempe North’s electorate is diverse, volatile, and fiercely political. The constituency’s history of rejecting NRM—evident in Ssegirinya’s 2021 rout—suggests a steep uphill battle for Nambi.
Yet, by-elections in Uganda often favor the ruling party, which can leverage state resources and security apparatus to sway outcomes. Posts on X reflect this uncertainty: some accuse NRM of ballot stuffing, while others mock NUP’s rigging claims as desperate theatrics.
The truth remains elusive, but perception could shape turnout. If NUP supporters, rattled by violence and allegations, stay home, or if NRM’s promises of development sway undecided voters, the result could defy expectations.
No doubt heading into today’s election, Nalukoola holds the edge in Kawempe North, backed by NUP’s historical grip and a passionate base. His pledge to uphold Ssegirinya’s legacy and fight for justice positions him as the sentimental favorite.
Yet Nambi cannot to be underestimated could exploit any NUP misstep. The by-election’s outcome hinges on turnout, security dynamics, and the electorate’s mood—factors that remain unpredictable as voting begins.
Nalukoola could be the favoured candidate but in Uganda’s volatile political landscape, NRM has the tools to spring a surprise
