Debbra Mugaga Muyinza
Uganda’s gold industry has reached a defining moment. The question is no longer whether the country has gold or whether the mineral can earn foreign exchange.
The real question is whether Uganda can turn this natural resource into a broader engine of economic growth.
This question is central to the government’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, which aims to expand Uganda’s economy from about $50 billion in 2023 to $500 billion by 2040.
The strategy prioritises four sectors: agro-industrialisation, tourism, mineral-based industrialisation, and science, technology and innovation. Together, these are known as ATMS.
Gold therefore matters not simply as a commodity for export, but as part of a broader national effort to raise productivity, increase value addition, expand exports and attract private investment.
Countries do not transform their economies simply by exporting more commodities. Transformation happens when natural resources help build domestic capacity through skilled employment, competitive businesses, modern infrastructure, stronger institutions and a broader tax base.
If mineral development is to contribute to Uganda’s tenfold growth ambition, the country must look beyond the value of the resources underground and focus on the productive economy that can be built around them.
In 2025, gold emerged as Uganda’s leading export, accounting for 76.6 per cent of total export earnings, according to the Ministry of Finance’s Development Policy and Performance Portal.
The Bank of Uganda reported that gold export earnings rose to about $5.8 billion in 2025, up from $3.3 billion in 2024.
This marks a significant shift in a national economy long associated with agriculture, trade and manufacturing, and more recently with oil and gas.
However, export earnings alone should not be mistaken for broad-based economic development.
The greater opportunity lies in retaining more value within Uganda, strengthening links with other ATMS sectors and ensuring that the benefits reach more businesses and communities.
Public discussion about Uganda’s gold potential must also be grounded in credible evidence.
Widely circulated estimates of millions of tonnes of gold-bearing ore and values running into trillions of dollars have generated considerable excitement.
However, the quantity of ore in the ground is not the same as the amount of gold that can be commercially recovered.
Reliable valuations depend on verified mineral grades, recovery rates, operating and capital costs, mine design and internationally recognised resource and reserve classifications.
Public confidence is better served by credible geological data and transparent economic assessments than by spectacular figures presented without sufficient context.
The Wagagai gold project in Busia provides a more concrete illustration of the opportunity. The Uganda Investment Authority has reported about 30 million tonnes of gold ore at an average grade of 0.81 grammes of gold per tonne.
These figures indicate substantial quantities of gold contained in the ore, although the amount ultimately recovered will depend on processing efficiency, costs and other technical factors.
The project demonstrates how exploration, investment and industrial production can move the sector beyond speculation towards measurable economic activity.
Uganda’s gold opportunity, however, extends beyond large-scale mining projects. Mining activities take place in several parts of the country and support thousands of people, including artisanal and small-scale miners, traders, processors, transporters and local service providers. This broad economic and social footprint makes formalisation both urgent and complex.
Formalisation cannot mean regulation alone. Many artisanal and small-scale miners operate with limited capital, technology, safety equipment and bargaining power.
Bringing them into the legal economy requires accessible licensing, cooperative structures, geological information, technical training, safer mining methods, environmental safeguards and fair access to markets.
Enforcement is necessary, but it must be accompanied by practical and affordable ways for miners to comply with the law.
Without this support, regulation risks pushing some activities further underground instead of creating a safer and more transparent industry.
The Bank of Uganda’s Domestic Gold Purchase Programme adds another important dimension. Under the programme, the central bank buys gold from licensed and prequalified domestic miners through traceable channels, with the aim of strengthening the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
The initiative could also help connect legitimate local production to the formal financial system and encourage greater transparency in the gold trade.
Its credibility will depend on reliable assaying, transparent pricing, effective chain-of-custody systems and strong safeguards against money laundering and illicit financial flows.
Financial institutions also have an important role to play, but they should not take speculative exposure to the sector. Responsible financing should be based on verified production, legitimate mineral origins and transparent transactions.
Licensed operators with credible documentation, dependable gold-buying arrangements, monitored payment flows, appropriate insurance and independent quality verification can be supported through working capital, equipment finance, payment services, foreign exchange and transaction banking.
In this way, finance can help deliver the Tenfold Growth Strategy by enabling legitimate businesses to invest, formalise their operations and expand.
Ultimately, Uganda should aim to develop a complete gold economy rather than concentrate on extraction and exports alone. Mining is only the beginning.
Domestic refining, jewellery manufacturing, secure logistics, assaying and laboratory services, equipment supply, professional services and specialised skills can create additional jobs, encourage technology transfer and generate public revenue.
Science and innovation can improve mineral exploration, traceability, recovery rates and environmental performance. Tourism could also benefit from the responsible development of mining heritage and related regional infrastructure. Communities engaged in agro-industrial activities could gain from better roads, reliable electricity, improved market access and stronger local businesses.
This is the wider promise of the ATMS agenda: sectors that reinforce one another rather than operate as separate investment priorities.
However, these opportunities do not remove the risks. Gold smuggling, weak traceability, mercury use, unsafe working conditions, environmental damage and illicit financial flows can undermine the industry’s economic contribution and damage Uganda’s international reputation.
The country will therefore need consistent enforcement, reliable data, responsible environmental management and institutions capable of applying the law fairly.
Strong oversight must go hand in hand with policies that encourage legitimate investment and protect workers and communities.
Gold can become an important pillar of Uganda’s journey towards a $500 billion economy. But success should not be measured by the size of an estimate, the value of a shipment or the export earnings recorded in a single year.
It should be measured by what Uganda builds above ground: skilled people, responsible businesses, trusted institutions, stronger foreign exchange reserves and meaningful participation by local communities.
That is how mineral development can reinforce the wider ATMS agenda and turn Uganda’s natural resource wealth into lasting national prosperity.
The writer works with Stanbic Bank Uganda Limited, a member of the Standard Bank Group.
