Dr. Kizza Besigye’s frail physical appearance in court last week brought some to tears, raising fears that the worst could happen to the opposition behemoth.
In a panic, a minister went to visit him at Luzira, and Besigye was finally rushed to a clinic in Bugolobi yesterday amid tight security.
His condition remains precarious, according to friends and relatives, yet despite mounting pressure on the government to release him for further medical attention, authorities remain unmoved.
With genuine fears that his health could worsen, even leading to his death, Uganda faces a highly volatile political moment.
If Besigye were to die in incarceration, Uganda could experience many worst scenarios, each carrying profound political, social, and security implications. Here are just five.
Protests
Besigye’s death would likely trigger massive protests across the country, particularly in opposition strongholds like Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Mukono, and parts of the Ankole, Busoga, and Teso subregions.
As a figure who has embodied the struggle for political change for over two decades, his death would be seen as a government-orchestrated act of repression.
Angry citizens, opposition supporters, and civil society activists could take to the streets, demanding justice and accountability.
Given Uganda’s history of heavy-handed crackdowns on protests, clashes between security forces and demonstrators could turn deadly, leading to significant casualties and destabilization.
The government’s response to such unrest could further escalate tensions, possibly leading to widespread violence similar to the deadly protests witnessed in November 2020 following the arrest of the National Unity Platform leader Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine).
The risk of a prolonged period of instability would be high in terms of lives and property lost.
Possible insurgency
The protests could morph into an insurgency. At a young age, Dr Besigye left his job at Aga Khan Hospital in Nairobi to join the NRA bush war in 1981. At that time, it was fashionable in many parts of Africa to launch insurgencies to remove sitting governments.
Over the years, some analysts have argued that there can never be a rebellion in Uganda since there are some governance reforms and many people have lost their appetite for war.
Yet there remain some radical elements within the opposition who, if push came to shove, would not rule out adopting violent means to express their frustration. Many young people in Uganda have lost faith in the electoral process and see little hope for peaceful political change.
Besigye’s passing in custody might fuel extremist narratives, leading to the rise of underground movements willing to engage in violent resistance.
Security forces would likely respond with mass arrests and crackdowns, further fueling resentment and radicalization. In the worst-case scenario, this could lead to the emergence of a new wave of armed insurgencies similar to past rebel movements that sought to challenge Museveni’s rule.
Sanctions
Third, Besigye’s death in state custody would attract international condemnation from human rights organizations, foreign governments, and regional bodies like the United Nations (UN), the African Union (AU), and the East African Community (EAC).
Some Western nations, particularly the European Union and the United Kingdom, which have previously voiced concerns about Uganda’s human rights record, could impose targeted sanctions on top government officials.
Sanctions could include asset freezes, travel bans, and suspension of financial aid, further straining Uganda’s economy. With the country facing economic hardships, increased isolation from the international community would worsen matters.
Uganda’s relationship with key donors, who have supported health, education, and infrastructure projects, could suffer significantly.
Opposition crisis
If Besigye were to die in prison, it would leave a massive leadership vacuum within Uganda’s opposition.
While other opposition figures such as Kyagulanyi and Gen Mugisha Muntu are active, Besigye is still seen as a unifying force with the experience and resilience to challenge President Museveni’s long rule. His absence could lead to internal divisions among opposition factions, weakening their collective efforts to push for democratic change.
The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), the party Besigye helped build, is already experiencing internal wrangles. His new formation, the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), would be left rudderless.
Therefore, his death could deepen these divisions as different factions compete for dominance. Similarly, the broader opposition movement might struggle to rally around a single leader, allowing the government to exploit these weaknesses and consolidate its grip on power.
Crisis in NRM
Not only would there be a crisis in the opposition but also within the NRM. Museveni’s government has maintained a fragile balance between control and legitimacy. However, if Besigye were to die in detention, it would deal a major blow to the regime’s credibility, both locally and internationally.
Many Ugandans would view it as proof that the government no longer tolerates dissent and is willing to let political opponents perish in custody.
Moreover, with Museveni in power for nearly four decades and growing older, the question of succession remains unresolved. One could argue that Museveni’s grip on power has been partly sustained by figures like Besigye, who have provided a controlled form of opposition.
Without him, the political environment could become unpredictable, with new challengers emerging, some potentially more radical than before. Museveni’s inner circle could also become divided over how to handle the political fallout, leading to internal struggles within the ruling NRM.
In short, the best course of action for authorities now is to free Dr Besigye to allow him access to proper medical treatment. Failure to act could push Uganda into one of its most turbulent political periods in recent history.
