Yesterday, Bbeg Media listed 10 NRM politicians whose influence and power are on the wane. We argued that in 15 years, these politicians are likely to be irrelevant to our political scene. We based our arguments largely on their advanced age but that was not the only factor. Today we turn our focus to opposition politicians who we think their fortunes are dwindling fast. Some of these could still be young but have peaked early. Here are 10 opposition politicians who may be irrelevant by 2039.
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1.Dr Kizza Besigye
Few politicians have impacted Uganda’s political scene like Dr Besigye. He has been in the opposition trenches for close to 25 years and he has the scars to prove it. He is the doyen of opposition politics. Yet we believe that 15 years from now, he will not be consequential on the scene. Besigye has said that when he hits 70 years, he will take a political back seat . He will hit this landmark in April 2026.
2. Norbert Mao
For Mao, we believe he hit his political peak when he was appointed minister of Justice. Some have argued that he can be appointed to a loftier position like prime minister. Yet whatever the case, Mao’s influence as far as opposition politics is concerned is on a downward spiral. He can still attract headlines with his remarks but 15 years from now?
3. Gen Mugisha Muntu
There are those who believe Gen Muntu has a chance of becoming a president. They say under the current political circumstances which favour radical politicians, the amiable general is misplaced. But in future, once we put our politics in order, Muntu will lead. That future will most definitely arrive but Muntu won’t be part of it. He will be old and probably retired.
4. Erias Lukwago
Lukwago has been a dominant political player in Uganda for the last 20 years. He is now serving his third term as lord mayor. He is one of the brains behind the formation of a new political party where he is favoured to be its first leader. Yet it is clear his political capital is reducing by the day. Lukwago’s political career can only advance if he stands for president. Other than that, he could be destined to remain a mayor or political activist. And 15 years from now…
5. Nandala Mafabi
Nandala has represented the people of Budadiri West since 2001. So he is pushing 25 years in Parliament and if he wins in 2026, he will be aiming for 30 years. He is the secretary general of a deeply weakened FDC which can no longer put up a strong political challenge. His best years are behind him and we don’t think he will be a
6. Michael Mabikke
Mabikke joined Parliament in 2001 following the “Hajj Alagidde” wave. He was in his 20s and was one of the few vibrant legislators in the 7th Parliament. But after two terms, he fell off the cliff. He has unsuccessfully tried to make a comeback. Mabikke is relatively young but we believe his time could have ended. Yes he is still going to be around the scene but we doubt whether he can re-invent himself and become the big player he was in the 2000s.
7. Betty Nambooze
Nambooze’s political clock is ticking. She remains one of the more visible legislators but increasingly, she is losing her shine. For someone who many people believed could even stand for president, Nambooze must now ride on Kyagulanyi’s wave. Without Bobi Wine’s support, her political career could be in ruins. She is likely to be re-elected in Mukono Municipality in 2026. Yet unless something dramatic happens, Nambooze’s political career has started its descent.
8. Samuel Walter Lubega Mukaaku
Mukaaku’s highest political moment could have come in 2006 when he stood for the presidency as an independent. Since then, he has wandered from one political home to another. As an individual, he is passionate about politics and governance in this country. He is eloquent, measured and a good organiser. But somehow Ugandan voters rejected him. When he stood in Rubaga South in 2021, he garnered only 700 votes. Fifteen years from now
9. Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda
Ssemujju Nganda is one of the leading lights in Parliament. He is deeply informed and passionate about good governance. He has been in Parliament since 2011. However, you can sense that frustration is setting in. After 2026, Ssemujju will most likely be a leader in the breakaway political organization currently under formation.
10. Francis Zaake
Zaake could suffer Mabikke’s fate. He joined Parliament when he was young and was appointed commissioner in his second term. This means that unless he becomes leader of opposition or a cabinet minister (in case NUP wins the presidency), his political trajectory can only go down. Otherwise, he will continue serving as MP. That is the tragedy of peaking early.
