With each passing day, it appears that George Musisi, a prominent lawyer attached to the National Unity Platform will stand in Kira Municipality in the 2026 elections and face off with Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda.
Sources have told Bbeg Media that some senior leaders in NUP led by the party president, Robert Kyagulanyi, want Musisi to contest in Kira not Mukono Municipality where the incumbent, Betty Nambooze appears all but sure to come back.
Yet if Musisi chooses to stand in Kira Municipality, it could make for a mouth-watering race between two individuals who are both articulate and knowledgeable. This, however, does not mean that the lawyer will have it easy against Ssemujju who is one of the most prominent and popular MPs in Uganda.
Here are five reasons why Musisi could give Ssemujju a run for his money but still not win the race.
Voter fatigue
Ssemujju has been MP since 2011 and while he has been one of the most outspoken and active members, there comes a time when some voters just get tired of your face and want change for change’s sake. This is called voter fatigue. It caught up with John Ken Lukyamuzi in 2016. Lukyamuzi had been in Parliament since 1996. Former Vice President Edward Kiwanuka Ssekandi also suffered a similar fate in 2021. Therefore, voters who may be fatigued by Ssemujju, could vote Musisi.
Ssemujju is not a grassroots politician
Ssemujju’s video clips may be all over social media channels but he is not someone who you will see attend a speech day of a primary school in his constituency. It still baffles that Ssemujju has never attended Martyrs Day celebrations held in his constituency even for cosmetic purposes. While Kira is largely urban and cosmopolitan, it has a sizeable section that is rural. The people in these areas are the type who have been accusing Ssemujju of being a no-show in the constituency. They are the ones who normally ask for ambulances and want an MP who organizes football tournaments which Ssemujju does not do.
Changing voter demographics
The changing voter demographics particularly the age factor may work in Musisi’s favour. Consider the fact that someone who was three years old when Ssemujju was first elected to Parliament in 2011 will have come of age by 2026. They will be 18 years. Many of these don’t mind about who Ssemujju is or his stature on the national stage. They just go with the flow. These young people are very unpredictable and if Musisi deliberately makes an effort to reach them, he could sway them to his side. They could determine the outcome of the race.
However, this does not mean Musisi will emerge victorious in 2026. Ssemujju has his strengths.
Ssemujju is popular
Ssemujju still has the power of the incumbency and whether you like him or not, he is popular in Kira Municipality. In 2021 with the NUP wave in high gear, he defeated the party’s Jimmy Lukwago with a margin of 36,000 votes. Many people who vote for Ssemujju don’t consider his political affiliation. They want someone who can articulately represent their views and concerns. Musisi is articulate but not to the level of Ssemujju.
Ssemujju has the money
Elections in Uganda have been commercialized and therefore money plays a big role in someone’s success. Ssemujju has over the years amassed a sizeable war chest which he can deploy when the need arises. To successfully run a campaign in a vast constituency like Kira one needs not less than Shs 1 billion. There are so many logistical issues to handle. Here Ssemujju has the upper hand over Musisi.
