The removal of Mathias Walukagga of the National Unity Platform (NUP) from the Busiro East ballot has reshaped the race that, until today, appeared to be his to lose.
In the short term, the disqualification changes three practical things in Busiro East. First, some of the vibe that Walukagga had brought to the contest will disappear. Walukagga has not been active on the trail, but his supporters have been vociferous.
Second, what happens to the votes that Walukagga’s “votes”? They are up for grabs among the remaining contenders.
Third, the optics of Walukagga’s removal may cut in different ways and affect voter turnout on January 15, 2026.
Many supporters of Walukagga are likely to see the Electoral Commission’s decision as a harsh application of rules. Some could say it was a political decision aimed at advantaging other candidates at the expense of NUP. If this impression grows that the rules were applied selectively, sympathy for Walukagga could translate into protest votes or even non-participation.
Who stands to gain? On paper, the obvious beneficiary is Medard Sseggona, the incumbent who has occupied the seat for three terms. Sseggona is now the best-known candidate in the race with a vote base.
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But the arithmetic is not automatic. Voters who supported Walukagga because they wanted a fresh face, or because they are loyal to the NUP rather than to the man, may follow party direction and back the person that the party tells them to.
If NUP rallies behind Sseggona, an independent who is urging people to vote for Bobi Wine as president, then he will benefit.
But if NUP insists and asks voters to back another candidate, say Emmanuel Magoola, who vied for the party ticket with Walukagga and Sseggona, the opposition vote could split, handing an advantage to NRM’s Abdul Kiyimba.
In 2021, the NRM candidate, Najib Kakinda Male got 11, 758 votes, a small fraction of Sseggona’s 88918 votes.
That dismal performance does not mean the NRM is irrelevant because voter dynamics change every electoral cycle.
Where will Walukagga’s supporters go now? There is no single answer. They are likely to form three blocs. The first bloc will be party loyalists who will follow whatever NUP decides. If the party singles out a favourite, these voters will shift to the person. The second bloc comprises personal supporters who backed Walukagga as an individual. These many not vote for any other candidate.
The third bloc will be supporters of Walukagga who don’t like Sseggona. These could back Magoola or even Kiyimba if either of them looks competitive enough against Sseggona.
Finally, the broader risk for the opposition is reputational. If NUP appears to have been wrongfooted by the EC decision, some of its supporters in Busiro East may feel the party mismanaged a winnable contest during the selection process. Already, there were voices of discontent among some after the party settled for Walukagga, who, even if he was popular on the ground, could not match the eloquence and legislative skills of Sseggona.
The coming days will show which path the party takes. For now, the disqualification of Walukagga has reshaped the Busiro East race in ways that not many saw coming.
